North Korea, China, and the Bomb

Word is coming in that there is activity at the nuclear test site in North Korea. There is the arrival of soldiers, trucks, and most incriminating is the construction of a building. Further there appears to be the construction of a second site that mirrors the first site. Are these the actions of a remorseful nation? But what might be very interesting is the involvement of China in the procedings.

Yes, it is true that China is trading in North Korea expecially for Iron Ore. China has now stood before the international community and stated that North Korea has explicitly promised no new detonations unless provoked. This is an unusual situation that calls for a bit of attention.

On October 9th, 2006 Kim ordered the detonation of a nuclear blast. He apparently only informed China 20 minutes before he decided to provoke the whole world. It is important to note the loss of face that Kim Jong Mad has dished China. China is no fool and does not really trust North Korea with a nuke. But China does not want to appear to be unsupportive of one of the few Communist countries in the world. Further China does not wish to lose its valuable trade with North Korea.

What to watch for? Watch for China playing it aloof until the second detonation. At that point China will come to the table and will begin to put serious pressure on North Korea. China does not want a war in that area of the world and certainly does not want to get pulled into a conflict with the USA without the benefit of preparation and surprise.

Further, watch for Kim to try to fix his nuke since the first one almost fizzled. It may take them awhile to try to figure out what went wrong. This may play into the political strategy since it allows them to cool down the international situation before blowing up another mountain. Unless we pull out of Korea expect them to detonate another nuke sooner or later.