(China and Russia in 2005 in excercises)In my weak moments I wonder.... what if China were to.....
Yeah, if you have studied military stuff and foreign policy you know it is a foolish worry but I just can't shake it. I often resort to saying dumb things to justify it like "well by 2015....." and "if we were to get in a ground war with them...". Both statements are nonsensical. Projections as far as 10 years down the road are crazy and where in the whole asian world will we get into a ground war with China???!!?? (Taiwan doesn't count because they gotta cross our ocean.)
Can they mount a navy? Yes, if ... 1. its near to their military ports (all their ships are conventional diesal boats and they don't have sufficient refueling capabilities to extend their arm beyond the South China Sea except for very short duration excercises.)
2. if there is not a heavy use of enemy air (the Chinese navy has a few missile boats but not nearly enough to contend with a concerted airstrike) TANGENT WARNING!! Why the crap don't we have long range Naval Bombers!!! Sure there aren't many strong navies in the world but still! We need some long range naval bombers. Somebody wake up the bureacrats in Washington to stop blocking the designs!! This is a critical flaw in our naval coverage. I hope the Chinese and Russians don't try something stupid to exploit it.
Russia has the Tu-22M long range naval bomber... why can't we have one?
There is the grave misgiving about Taiwan because China.... 1. only needs to deny us air superiority for a matter of days 2. its close enough that some of their shore SAMs can get in on the action and 3. they can take heavy losses and still win.
Sure but the facts are clear... 1. Taiwan has a very nice air force supplied by the wonderful US of A. 2. If we can get one modified Ohio class submarine (the ones with all the cruise missiles instead of ICBMs) into that straight we pretty much win. 3. If we get one carrier battle group near the straight we win. 4. It will take time to stage the troops and landing craft perhaps as much as a month (clearly visible by satellite)
Ohio class Submarine (not refitted with cruise missiles)
But there is the thousands of medium range missiles that China has near Taiwan and the thousands of fighters (mostly crap but they each still take a missile) there too.
What if they can figure out a way to deceive us for a few weeks or rather distract us....? It worries me and I know it shouldn't. That is what drives me crazy. Could they do it? NO! Does it worry me? YES! The Chinese are smart, patient, and sly a very dangerous combination.
reported in by Think Tank Commander at 11:46 PM
11 Comments:
Wow, well, that is all a mouthful and I am just not too worried. I am not saying that it doesn't concern me. It is one of those things that needs to be watched but is so unlikely. (Much like the conclusion you have come to.)
I want to address 2 specific points. The first is about the long range naval bomber. I am just wondering what you mean by "naval." Are you speaking of a bomber that is able to take off from our carriers, I assume? Needing planes that are able to takeoff/land from our carriers. But if we have planes in the USAF inventory that fill the need for intercontinental use, there is no need for multiple formats to fill the same need.
With stealth being the new weapon, it is best to take all the advantage of it that we can. Designing aircraft for carriers can be a pain in the ass. The need for landing gear on steroids takes up space, but is obviously a need. Almost any USAF plane attempting to make an arrested landing on a carrier would do a belly flop and slide down the deck.
We have the B-1B Lancer, it is quite similar to the craft you mention. (We used to have the F-111.) There just isn't a need for a "Navy" version. In addition it has been tough getting stealth into the navy. The stealth aircraft tend to be delicate, the coat of the craft could easily be injured through life on a carrier in addition to the landings. Rendering it no longer stealth like.
As for our submarines. We are starting the conversion of missile warheads to non-nuclear. The question is, do we as a country have the will to use nuclear weapons anymore? So many signs point to no, and THAT is what worries me. I know that makes me sound like a destruction loving lunatic.
The world hears us talk about our laser guided/GPS bombs and missiles because we don't want kill innocent people. They know that so many, in the US, are more worried about the protection of every other soul in the world but not about our shores! The old concept was to use a nuclear weapon to destroy naval fleets. If a fleet of a massive size is traveling from China, will we use a "nuke" to take it out?
Obviously today is different than the last days of WWII, we are no longer THE nuclear power. What would happen if we concurred there was no alternative to save the US, we were going to be forced to use a nuclear weapon on a civilian city to bring a country to its knees. Will we? Are we ready to argue to the rest of the world that it was necessary? Are we willing to consider our needs before the opinion of the rest of the world?
Officially it has not been said, but I think most would agree that nuclear weapons are off the table solely because of the opinion ramification of the rest of the world. That worries more than anything else. That people don’t understand that it is possible to come down to a “they die or we die.” I fear too many people actually have to think about it if posed as a question.
Good comment mdconservative,
On the nuclear question I totally agree that currently we Americans would be too weak willed to nuke a Chinese Navy in defense of Taiwan. I did not post such a fact because of the radioactive fallout downwind, (aka Taiwan) reprocussions of the nuclear sort, and the panzie world whining like it was the end of the world. I totally agree that such a stated policy of tactical usage to defend Taiwan would render an invasion forever off limits.
With regard to the long range naval bomber... no it should not be Carrier based. Rather land based but with a standoff weapon that can be fired over the horizon. Such as the Harpoon. Currently the Harpoon can only be mounted on F-18s and B-52s. Neither is a happy balance of combat survivability and range.
Sure the lancers are nice but 1. hugely expensive (they have to be replaced not serviced after 1500 flight hours) 2. they cannot carry harpoons 3. their only standoff weapon is GPS guided... it will miss if the ship goes evasive... which it will.
If we were to launch an airstike on a decently well protected fleet we could only use F-18s (390 nautical miles combat radius which is 390 X 1.15= 448 miles) compared to the Tu-22M3 4,350 miles radius. Slightly big of a difference.
In the end long range strike capability that can fire over the horizon is better than stealth capability when it comes to naval warfare.
I understand! I thought you were talking about a new air platform for sea-based launch to attack ground (dry) targets. Following your response the original post makes more sense.
I think one thing that should really be done is make it so every weapon can be used on any weapon platform. Obviously with some restrictions. You won't be having a Predator drone carrying around a B-52 launched cruise missile. Obviously weight is always an issue, and with stealth aircraft having cramped weapons bays.
There are always limits. While I am sure there will wonderful advancements I do get concerned over projects like the JSF. I am sure it will be a great aircraft, and it will make parts and repairs easier. However, I like the concept of designing certain planes for certain jobs.
I get your bigger point now, and it is thought provoking. The Harpoon is a heck of a missile! Of course now the combination of weapon acquisition techniques always changes. Do you want to use radar, GPS, photo? I think a missile that can fly at sea-level (like the harpoon) and get to a region using GPS, then switch to radar or use outline acquisition to use the outline of the targeted ship to further acquire and harm or destroy the ship.
I am sure that DARPA with the USN and defense contractors are coming up with some ideas.
I meant to give you this link:
www.defenselink.mil/news/Jul2005/d20050719china.pdf
Excellent report... last one I remember reading was the 2003 report. I commend it heartily to all 2 people that read this blog.(or 1 person since mdconservative, you suggested the report.)
I had to dig that one out. The QDR didn't really cover China at all. However, in the 2006 QDR there is a nice photo of a sub launched cruise missile. Thought you might want to take a look if you haven't already.
www.qr.hq.af.mil/pdf/2006%20QDR%20Report.pdf
Search "china" and it is 2nd page.
Just my luck that this blog is read only by people way smarter and better informed than me. Just makes me want to focus on my new core mission... put up pretty pictures.
You wrote:
"What if they can figure out a way to deceive us for a few weeks or rather distract us....? It worries me and I know it shouldn't. That is what drives me crazy. Could they do it? NO! Does it worry me? YES! The Chinese are smart, patient, and sly a very dangerous combination."
With all due respect, you should be conserned about the growing Chinese threat.
How could we possibly stop them when we as a nation are so beholden to their industrial base and their purchases of T-Bills to maintain our economy?
We have a 700 billion dollar trade deficit, and most of it is with China. I wonder if we could survive without their imports and I wonder if a war with them would mean an economic collapse for the U.S.
We wouldn't be able to build cars, computers, radios, maybe even military uniforms?
They have us by the nuts, and it's just a matter of time before they apply pressure.
China is a growing threat on several levels, yet we remain beholden to them - a communist government!
If they did attack Taiwan, how could we stop them?
Sorry to rant, but our lack of planning here really pisses me off!
Everytime our government allows another plant to go to China, we make ourselves more vulnerable. GATT has been a total disaster on both an economic and defensive level.
Sorry if I stole your thread.
If I could just add one more thing:
"Chevrolet Ends Civilian Auto Production, January 30, 1942
Today in 1942, Chevrolet produced its last automobile for the US civilian market. From this day until the summer of 1945, every Chevy plant in the United States produced war materials in the form of planes, tanks, and various sub-assemblies."
Could we do this again?
Actually the debt will prevent war. If we go to war with China our first move will be to simply ignore our debt. Suddenly the Chinese have just handed us billions of dollars... thanks!!
We have contingency plans for Taiwan and we have a vast technological superiority in terms of Navy capabilities and Air Force. Most of their planes are utter crap. Even without us Taiwan could put up a decent fight.
Very though provoking post. The Chinese are becoming a force in the wrold and each of your points in hypoyhosis are true. But as MDConservative mentioned ,militarily we are afr superior and advanced than the Chinese. I beleive their greatest threat from a military stand point is if an invasion takes place they have a tremendously larger ground force as far as numbers of soldiers and the capability of adding more. One carrier task group has more military capability than the entire Chinese military. Also on another sublect, you are being spotlighted as The Blog of the Week. Thanks for linking to my blog and the many visits that you have made. Keep up the great work. The Traffic will come in time as you writing is shared in more circles. It is well worth reading.
Ken
Post a Comment
<< Home