(China and Russia in 2005 in excercises)


In my weak moments I wonder.... what if China were to.....

Yeah, if you have studied military stuff and foreign policy you know it is a foolish worry but I just can't shake it. I often resort to saying dumb things to justify it like "well by 2015....." and "if we were to get in a ground war with them...". Both statements are nonsensical. Projections as far as 10 years down the road are crazy and where in the whole asian world will we get into a ground war with China???!!?? (Taiwan doesn't count because they gotta cross our ocean.)

Can they mount a navy? Yes, if ... 1. its near to their military ports (all their ships are conventional diesal boats and they don't have sufficient refueling capabilities to extend their arm beyond the South China Sea except for very short duration excercises.)

2. if there is not a heavy use of enemy air (the Chinese navy has a few missile boats but not nearly enough to contend with a concerted airstrike) TANGENT WARNING!! Why the crap don't we have long range Naval Bombers!!! Sure there aren't many strong navies in the world but still! We need some long range naval bombers. Somebody wake up the bureacrats in Washington to stop blocking the designs!! This is a critical flaw in our naval coverage. I hope the Chinese and Russians don't try something stupid to exploit it.

Russia has the Tu-22M long range naval bomber... why can't we have one?




There is the grave misgiving about Taiwan because China.... 1. only needs to deny us air superiority for a matter of days 2. its close enough that some of their shore SAMs can get in on the action and 3. they can take heavy losses and still win.

Sure but the facts are clear... 1. Taiwan has a very nice air force supplied by the wonderful US of A. 2. If we can get one modified Ohio class submarine (the ones with all the cruise missiles instead of ICBMs) into that straight we pretty much win. 3. If we get one carrier battle group near the straight we win. 4. It will take time to stage the troops and landing craft perhaps as much as a month (clearly visible by satellite)

Ohio class Submarine (not refitted with cruise missiles)

But there is the thousands of medium range missiles that China has near Taiwan and the thousands of fighters (mostly crap but they each still take a missile) there too.

What if they can figure out a way to deceive us for a few weeks or rather distract us....? It worries me and I know it shouldn't. That is what drives me crazy. Could they do it? NO! Does it worry me? YES! The Chinese are smart, patient, and sly a very dangerous combination.

Nothing is as straighforward as it seems..

Take national defense. There are plenty of people that have been bashing Bush on the cutting down of the Army Reserve. There is truth in the fact that a bigger Army Reserve, with everything else equal is a bonus to our national defense. However we must realize that sending money to units that are not as useful in the war on terror instead of sending it to say recruit more Active Duty Special Forces is just plain stupid.

Now on to the ports deal. One... we have a choice here as well. We must chose one or the other. We can either honor our friends and allies building that relationship or we can "secure our ports better". Now I am hesitant to agree with many liberals and conservatives on this point because firstly I am not seeing a terrible danger from UAE citizens having a knowledge of our ports. There is deterance. If a UAE citizen screws us we will make the UAE a smoking crater visible from Iraq. Additionally I have this crazy belief that Arabs aren't our enemy.. rather our enemy happens to be Arabs.

To further elaborate on the point of relationships I would like to bring some Cultural Anthropology to bear. Relationships are not nearly as important to us as they are in the Arab world. In the Arab world people will do something for you if they have a good relationship with you. Whether something is good for them or whether its a smart thing to do takes second place to such relational thinking. On the other hand if they hate you.. they will do whatever it takes to screw you over until they die in a tremendous explosion. (example-Al Qaeda)

Next let me reiterate that this Arab company will not be in charge of security or inspections. Further dock workers need Identification and Green Cards. The people on the docks will probably still be mostly American citizens. The only security threat is information on security procedures going to the company.

So the short of this issue in my mind is a near term vs. long term view. If we alienate Arabs by proving that our war really is against Arabs not just Al Qaeda we will be doing more harm to our cause than if we permit this to continue.

-The UAE is a vital ally in the UN,
-the UAE a vital ally in staging troops and aircraft,
-the UAE is vital in denying Al Qaeda a safe harbor,
-the UAE is vital in providing intelligence,
-the UAE is essential in cutting finances to terrorists (they are the banking nexus in the Middle East),
-and the UAE is critical in keeping the oil of the world flowing through their waters.
US carrier in Jebel Ali, UAE.

If the UAE takes insult at this grave sign of distrust and carelessness as to the relationship we will be severely handicapped in our war on terror. Sure offend Saudi Arabia and I will give a "hoorah!" but play with our relations with the UAE as if they are meaningless and you court disaster.

If we hit Iran... where will our refueling tankers fly out of?
If we enact sanctions against Iran.. who will freeze their assets?
If Iran tries to shut down the Straight of Hormuz with destroyers, mines, or shore based missiles... in whose waterways will our oil tankers use? And in whose waters will we float our destroyers?

Yes! The good old United Arab Emirates!!

Lets not piss them off so they end up saying "you don't trust us with your ports... we don't trust your refueling units in our country". Remember what they did during the Iran/Iraq war.

"Fujairah's prominence as a convenient 'bunker stop' was born out of the Iran/Iraq war in the mid 1980's. The only ship's entrance to the Gulf, through the Straits of Hormuz, was mined and tankers were also targeted by Iranian fire. Passage became restricted to US and Royal Navy protected convoys. Fujairah is in the outer Gulf, and as vessels queued up waiting to go through the strait in convoys." (Global security)
The above is what Iran is proported to have deployed near the Straight of Hormuz.

History has a way of repeating itself.. what if the UAE sided with Iran? How would we be able to support our troops in Iraq logistically? Currently the plan if the straight is shut down would be to portage the supplies over the UAE.

Long term vs. the Short Term (hard choice but I have set forth my opinion.)

For those worried... Could we take Iran next month?

<-NOT Invasion..






First we go to the objective in Iran... "On 28 October 2003 the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a hearing on "Iran - Security Threats and US Policy". This hearing included an exchange between Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and Richard Armitage, Deputy Secretary of State:
Hagel: Regime change in Iran - is that our policy?
Armitage: No, sir.
Hagel: What is our policy?
Armitage: Our policy is to try to eliminate the ability of Iran to carry forward with disruptive policies, such as the development of WMD [weapons of mass destruction], such as the abandonment of human rights, such as repression against minorities, such as religious oppression against the Bahais, and to try to get them to eschew their state sponsorship of terrorism." (THANKS AGAIN GLOBALSECURITY.org)

Think Shock and Awe II
(Note: that's a B52 and a B2 taking off from Diega Garcia.)
The question is not about land forces... though we clearly have enough... the issue will be:
1.Identification of targets
2.Air supremacy for 2 days
3. Available payload & penetration capability

1.First the targets... sources claim that there are perhaps 2 dozen sites of interest with regard to nuclear development. Due to the urgency of taking out ALL of the research facilities we must assume that there will be more bombed than that. Our satellites have been locked onto the major sites for years. The smaller and possibly mobile sites will have to be revealed by human intelligence from defectors or careful attention via satellite.

As with any air campaign there will need to suppress enemy Surface to Air Missile (SAM) batteries as well as concentrated Anti Aircraft Artillery (AA guns). Many of these are fixed leading them to have been spotted and plotted by our military. Unfortunatly Iran is currently in negotiations to aquire 29 SA15 Gauntlet systems which are some very nasty low to medium altitude mobile SAM's that Iran may deploy before we can hit them.

2. Air supremecy.... Iran can mount an estimated 20 F-14A's, an undisclosed number of Su-25's, and perhaps 7 Tu-22Ms, 19 MIG-27s, and several MIG-31s (unconfirmed)(MIG 31 pictured at right)

In the end our fighters and bombers will have to contend with at most 60-70 fourth generation fighters. Those numbers are high due to the "soft" nature of the "generations". For those who are not analysts aircraft are generally grouped into generations to match up common capabilities. All F-14's, F-15's, F-16's, and F-18's are 4th generation fighters. In addition we now have a wing of 5th generation fighters at our disposal. On December 15, 2005 the 27th Fighter Squadron at Langley was officially using F-22's and operational.

We have not had a problem with Air Supremacy since mid WWII. It is confounding to me that anyone would think a pushover like Iran will do us in. However there are those who think our military is stretched too thin.

F-22's- about 80-90?? (couldn't find a hard number just a delivery timetable that was fuzzy)
Overall Fighters on Active duty as of 2001- 906 Air force, 432 Navy, and 280 Marine fighters.(almost exclusively all being fourth generation or higher)
Overall fighters in Reserve- Approximatly half the active duty in all branches



3. Payload and penetration
Active force of B52's- 85 (last picture below... huge beasts)

Active force of B-2's- 21 (Stealth Bombers)

Enough said... but just to teach a bit of respect...


So to the sniveling wusses out there that don't understand that we can take anyone, anywhere, at anytime and take China just for fun ain't got no sense.

The liberals have us again.. surely our military is weak and unable to handle all this at once.... Please note the aircraft carriers of the world. Now just stretch this visual representation to all aspects of our military. Thanks for the image goes to Globalsecurity.org at http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/carriers.htm 

Losing the War on Terrorism

Certainly we may lose the War on Terrorism by giving up. Our forces are moving forward in Iraq, Afghanistan, and around the globe. The rebuilding of Iraq is going far better than the rebuilding of Germany and Japan after WWII. The losses from skirmishes in Iraq are even comparable to policing actions in Germany after WWII and situations in some unstable Third World Countries.

In short we are moving ahead. Our military is anything but stretched to the breaking point. Look how short the tours in Iraq are. In WWII we did not rotate units out of the European or South Pacific Theatres. Unless we have all of our ground forces deployed 100% of the time they are not being fully utilized.

I do not wish to seem as though I am making light of the challenges that our brave men and women in uniform are facing so I want to make the point clear: we are facing grave challenges but due to the character of those in uniform and those supporting them at home we can overcome them all. What we need is the same steel being displayed in Iraq to be matched by determination at home.

We are losing the war on the Frontlines of America. Our enemies have opened the dreaded second front on us and it is on our own soil that they attack us. Our media, liberals in congress, and idiots everywhere are endangering our lives and our way of life.

Let us not mince words as many are in the habit of doing... such people are traitors to our proud country.